Analysis solar market outlook.
Analysis solar market outlook: Background Spain vs the world
Between 2006 and 2008 Spain experienced a boom in the solar sector thanks to a subsidy from the government and became the country with the most power installed in 2008.
After eliminating this subsidy, the sector experienced a vertiginous fall, however, the rest of the countries continued to position themselves year after year contributing the following data at present.
- China 175,131 MW installed
- United States 62,127 MW installed
- Japan 55.851 MW installed
- Germany 45,920 MW installed
- India 27,347 MW installed
- Italy 19,877MW installed
- United Kingdom 12,962 MW installed
- Australia 12,560 MW installed
- France 8,920 MW installed
- South Korea 7,742 MW installed
Today there are 509,300 MW (2018) installed worldwide of which Spain only has 5,915 MW, that is, 1.16% of the installed world power is in Spain.
Forecasts of the solar market
To understand the paradigm of Spain in terms of the photovoltaic sector, we must know the growth forecasts worldwide. It is expected that the total installed power worldwide will go from the current 509,300 MW (2018) to 692,600 MW by the end of this year, installing 165GW in 2019.
The forecasts continue without positive results until reaching 3,000,000 MW in the year 2030, installed in 2030, 353,000 MW.
Why are the prospects so positive?
- A drop in the cost of this technology, leaving below the $ 50 / MWh cost of generating large-scale solar energy (utility-scale), well below the cost of coal or nuclear energy, which are located between $ 60 / MWh and $ 180 / MWh.
- The business generated through this industry, since it is used as a long-term investment method.
- A promotion by governments worldwide for the use of renewable energies, including photovoltaics.
These points also apply at the national level, of course the lower generation costs make this technology more accessible, although the cost for residential installations is not so low. Self-consumption will need a little push, based on its high profitability.
The photovoltaic business in Spain
Spain is one of the best countries in terms of solar radiation, making it one of the best countries to invest. There are many companies that want to make a hole in the Spanish solar sector to be well positioned in the coming years.
To understand the growth that Spain is going to experience, the Ministry of Finance, Industry and Energy has presented the draft National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) (Here you can download the draft PNIEC 2021-2030) in which it is estimated a great growth for the next years, 57,000 MW of generation park until 2030.
On the other hand, the Integrated Energy and Climate Plan proposes that in 2030 renewable sources contribute 42% of final energy in Spain and 74% of electricity. The percentage is very high, and what is sought is to drastically reduce the CO2 emissions that cause climate change. In addition to promoting and making our economy more competitive. More in the long term, the goal is to ensure that in 2050 Spain is a carbon neutral country, considering that renewable energy will contribute no less than 100% of electricity by then.
In 2030, photovoltaic energy will occupy 23.50% of the electricity production mix in Spain.
Source: Ministry of ecological transition. 2019
Conclusion
Photovoltaic solar energy will experience a large increase in the coming years, both in Spain and internationally.
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